Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40d7…fba4 other 29 markets active 1d ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$101
14 days−$101
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$28
crypto 14% +$61
sports 13% −$56
world 8% −$40
weather 2% −$10
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 20% -31.8%
≤30d 16 -28.4% -35.2% 38% 25% -29.8%
≤90d 24 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 33% -27.5%
all 29 +6.5% -3.6% 48% 38% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 38% -11.8%
10% -12.9% 31% -20.2%
15% -21.3% 28% -27.9%
20% -29.0% 24% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage179d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$40 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$50 +236%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $42 −$40 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$38 +185%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $113 +$5 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $21 +$4 +21%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $11 +$10 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 2? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? May 16 $30 −$30 -100%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? May 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 16 $10 +$28 +285%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $11 +$15 +145%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 08 $10 $0 +5%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 23 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Feb 07 $20 +$92 +459%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 26 $20 +$5 +23%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 01 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 28h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $11 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $21 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 6d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $118 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $113 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 79¢ $21 18d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 31d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 31d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 32d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 76d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 2? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 100d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $10 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records