Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x40db…ca8c sports 743 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,443 (+2%) realized +$4,121 · open −$678
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%523W / 217L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$1,448est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$426
7 days−$1,857
14 days−$1,147
30 days+$1,300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$3,267
other 3% −$211
world 0% +$14
crypto 0% +$8
tech 0% +$5
politics 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -12.1% -20.5% 73% 30% -16.0%
≤30d 342 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 46% -8.4%
≤90d 740 +3.5% -6.3% 71% 50% -7.4%
all 740 +3.5% -6.3% 71% 50% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 50% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 37% -16.2%
15% -23.5% 28% -24.3%
20% -31.0% 18% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$155 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$2,581
Realized+$4,121
Unrealized−$678
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses523 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,448
Open positions3
Markets (closed)740 / 743
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$226
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 740 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs the bug 90¢ 70¢ $3,198 $2,511 −$687 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $517 −$135 -26%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $147 +$49 +33%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $366 +$39 +11%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $375 −$371 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $686 +$51 +8%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $177 +$3 +2%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $171 +$7 +4%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $152 +$8 +5%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $331 −$331 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $230 +$7 +3%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $408 +$76 +19%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $142 +$107 +75%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $201 +$33 +16%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $146 +$14 +10%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $93 +$12 +13%
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? Jun 16 $234 +$4 +2%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $394 −$393 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $406 −$99 -24%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $350 +$76 +22%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $586 +$213 +36%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $522 −$521 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $126 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $342 −$340 -99%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5) Jun 16 $98 −$97 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $765 +$78 +10%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $280 −$97 -34%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $179 +$12 +6%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $1,036 +$67 +6%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $612 +$169 +28%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 15 $182 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $129 +$3 +2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $667 +$13 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $51 −$5 -9%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $48 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $593 +$106 +18%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $386 −$379 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $177 +$3 +2%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $417 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,046 −$531 -51%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $558 −$550 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $238 −$238 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $204 +$46 +23%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $2,241 +$249 +11%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $194 +$56 +29%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $63 +$2 +4%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $221 −$24 -11%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $104 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $2,797 +$325 +12%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $545 +$302 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $320 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 82¢ $263 1h
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $196 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 19¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 19¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 77¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 77¢ $19 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 77¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 77¢ $38 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 77¢ $38 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 77¢ $38 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 77¢ $38 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 77¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Power Rangers 75¢ $147 3h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $406 3h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 85¢ $21 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 85¢ $4 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 85¢ $26 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 91¢ $255 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 91¢ $12 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 92¢ $11 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 91¢ $37 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 60¢ $375 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $738 17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $39 18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $466 19h
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ SELL the bug 99¢ $515 19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $181 20h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri SELL PlayTime 100¢ $181 21h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 98¢ $177 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,580.87 · official $2,580.88 (match) · 3500 history records