Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40dd…e214 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,265 (-76%) realized −$2,262 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$28
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% −$1,804
sports 17% −$145
politics 15% −$304
crypto 1% −$30
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-65.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.7% -4.4% 43% 43% +31.6%
≤30d 8 -7.5% -16.3% 38% 38% +13.0%
≤90d 16 -50.1% -54.9% 19% 19% -78.8%
all 48 -61.3% -65.0% 19% 19% -83.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.0% 19% -83.6%
10% -68.4% 19% -85.2%
15% -71.4% 17% -86.6%
20% -74.2% 15% -88.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$64 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$2,262
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 39
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage237d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $15 +$23 +152%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 −$5 -49%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$18 +174%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 10 $10 +$12 +114%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $118 −$114 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $43 −$6 -13%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 09 $20 −$10 -49%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 09 $20 −$4 -21%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Mar 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playo Mar 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winner Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: All Gamers vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 07 $68 +$45 +66%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Mar 06 $30 +$16 +54%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 - Map 1 Winner Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 04 $19 −$8 -42%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $5 +$6 +117%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs Team Liquid - Map 2 Winner Mar 01 $10 +$9 +89%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $403 −$403 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) Jan 21 $37 +$17 +45%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $90 −$90 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 12 $290 −$290 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 12 $120 +$36 +30%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $480 −$480 -100%
Fed rate cut by December 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $297 −$297 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 28 $200 −$124 -62%
Will Pope Leo visit another country first? Oct 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025? Oct 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $26 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $15 21h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 8¢ $5 46h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $10 47h
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 11¢ $5 4d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 80¢ $31 4d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 13¢ $5 4d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner SELL NRG 59¢ $28 4d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 21¢ $10 4d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $5 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $10 7d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FULL SENSE 14¢ $10 8d
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $10 38d
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $10 38d
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 53¢ $30 38d
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Heretics 12¢ $5 38d
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Heretics 29¢ $10 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $31 46d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $36 46d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $36 46d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $43 48d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $50 48d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 23¢ $10 66d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Fnatic 81¢ $19 66d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Fnatic 42¢ $10 66d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 25¢ $15 66d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 11¢ $10 66d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 29¢ $10 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $25 88d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $75 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.88 · official $21.88 (match) · 127 history records