Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40de…66bd weather 655 markets active 0h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$235 (-1%) realized −$245 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate88%554W / 74L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$11
14 days+$42
30 days−$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$465
other 22% −$67
politics 17% +$165
sports 9% +$79
crypto 1% −$2
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +1.9% -7.8% 98% 2% -9.7%
≤30d 295 +0.1% -9.5% 93% 3% -11.3%
≤90d 497 -3.7% -12.9% 90% 4% -10.1%
all 628 -3.5% -12.7% 88% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 11% -10.0%
10% -21.1% 7% -18.7%
15% -28.7% 4% -26.5%
20% -35.7% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$21 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$1,630
Realized−$245
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses554 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions27
Markets (closed)628 / 655
History coverage398d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 628 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? No 97¢ 98¢ $257 $258 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 21? No 97¢ 99¢ $145 $149 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $145 $146 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 22? No 99¢ 97¢ $143 $140 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 20? No 94¢ 100¢ $110 $117 +$7 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $113 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 96¢ $105 $102 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Netherlands 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? No 98¢ 97¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Germany 95¢ 95¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 22? No 95¢ 95¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 21? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? No 97¢ 96¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? No 95¢ 86¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or below on June 21? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 21? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 22? No 98¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C on June 22? No 98¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? Jun 20 $129 +$8 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $97 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 +$1 +2%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $277 +$4 +2%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $203 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $84 +$21 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $23 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20? Jun 18 $59 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $147 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $85 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $65 +$5 +7%
Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Noah Okafor: 2+ assists Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Zeki Amdouni: 2+ assists Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $294 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 19? Jun 18 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20? Jun 18 $154 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? Jun 18 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 19? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 Jun 18 $213 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 19? Jun 18 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $141 +$1 +1%
Ezri Konsa: 2+ assists Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists Jun 18 $109 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Ivan Toney: 4+ shots Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Marin Pongračić: 2+ assists Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Francisco Conceição: 5+ shots Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ assists Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ assists Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Cédric Bakambu: 2+ assists Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Trincão: 2+ assists Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Francisco Conceição: 2+ assists Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Samu Costa: 4+ shots Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Samu Costa: 2+ assists Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ assists Jun 17 $27 +$1 +2%
Ali Olwan: 2+ assists Jun 17 $38 +$1 +2%
Mousa Ta'mari: 2+ assists Jun 17 $42 +$1 +2%
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists Jun 17 $47 +$1 +2%
Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $12 29m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? SELL No 87¢ $10 29m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? SELL No 87¢ $9 30m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $18 33m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 95¢ $48 35m
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $49 46m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $15 47m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $15 47m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $18 48m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $137 52m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $84 53m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $38 57m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $116 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $48 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $20 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $20 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,629.59 · official $1,629.59 (match) · 2093 history records