Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40e0…5885
crypto · 87 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$86 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$154 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses40 / 47
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage101d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 87 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$534
7 days+$534
14 days+$534
30 days+$534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? No 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $301 $0 −$301 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $206 +$147 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $206 +$140 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$45 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $403 +$40 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $301 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $302 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$98 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $206 +$114 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $57 −$25 -44%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$73 +72%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 +$59 +146%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$12 +123%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$14 +139%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 05 $305 −$301 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 05 $144 +$161 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 05 $199 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 05 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 05 $86 +$98 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 05 $78 −$49 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 05 $80 +$35 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 05 $152 −$37 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 05 $152 −$40 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 05 $200 −$56 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 05 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 05 $100 +$127 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 05 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 05 $61 +$101 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 05 $60 +$41 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 05 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 05 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 05 $29 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 05 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 05 $85 −$84 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 05 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 05 $50 +$86 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% +$85
sports 4% +$59
other 2% +$12
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $353 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $198 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $320 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +11.9% +1.3% 69% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 26 +11.9% +1.3% 69% 50% +4.9%
≤90d 26 +11.9% +1.3% 69% 50% +4.9%
all 87 -14.2% -22.3% 46% 40% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 40% -7.1%
10% -29.8% 39% -16.0%
15% -36.5% 38% -24.1%
20% -42.8% 31% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records