Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40e2…aab7
crypto · 137 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$346 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$369 · open −$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$314
Realized−$369
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses25 / 104
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)129 / 137
History coverage127d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 7 History 129 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$441
7 days−$441
14 days−$386
30 days−$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -43%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $331 +$26 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Andreeva vs Teichmann Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 13 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% −$291
sports 15% +$8
crypto 14% −$173
world 4% −$49
politics 0% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -59.1% -63.0% 11% 10% -34.0%
≤30d 126 -33.4% -39.7% 17% 17% -28.7%
≤90d 126 -33.4% -39.7% 17% 17% -28.7%
all 129 -31.2% -37.7% 19% 19% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 19% -26.8%
10% -43.7% 17% -33.8%
15% -49.1% 16% -40.2%
20% -54.1% 13% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.85 · official $313.23 (match) · 538 history records