Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40e3…5627 sports 563 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$126 (-0%) realized −$87 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%346W / 216L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day72.7pace
Fees−$2,891est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,940
other 1% +$591
crypto 0% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -9.8% -18.4% 56% 48% -15.2%
≤30d 485 +1.3% -8.4% 62% 55% -8.9%
≤90d 562 +0.3% -9.2% 62% 55% -10.5%
all 562 +0.3% -9.2% 62% 55% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 55% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 46% -19.0%
15% -25.8% 34% -26.9%
20% -33.1% 21% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$257 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses346 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$2,891
Open positions1
Markets (closed)562 / 563
History coverage33d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day72.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 60¢ 52¢ $316 $277 −$39 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $310 +$167 +54%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $779 −$7 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $84 +$54 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $233 −$48 -20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $111 +$24 +22%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $303 +$116 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $373 +$39 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $122 +$50 +41%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $360 −$62 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $180 +$67 +37%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $64 +$3 +5%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $214 −$214 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $1,391 +$6 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,258 −$1,099 -49%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $534 −$534 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $779 −$779 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 15 $1,432 −$789 -55%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$15 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $590 −$30 -5%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $167 +$133 +79%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $1,001 +$26 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,095 +$100 +9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$18 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $303 +$48 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $294 +$93 +32%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $319 +$182 +57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $312 +$107 +34%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $82 +$18 +22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $201 −$87 -43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $261 +$28 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,303 +$819 +63%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,414 +$292 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $212 +$102 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $201 +$48 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,256 −$360 -29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $469 −$296 -63%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $381 −$381 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $632 −$632 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1,077 −$1,077 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 13 $367 −$367 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $51 50m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $51 50m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $101 50m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $371 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 48¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 48¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 48¢ $102 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 75¢ $343 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 54¢ $107 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 77¢ $101 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 87¢ $753 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $202 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $202 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $101 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 59¢ $118 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 69¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 69¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 69¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 69¢ $849 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 69¢ $70 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 47¢ $185 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.64 · official $276.64 (match) · 2952 history records