Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40e4…8c59 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$1
other 13% −$11
finance 11% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +11.1% +0.5% 100% 100% +0.5%
≤30d 9 +2.4% -7.4% 44% 22% -9.2%
≤90d 16 +2.7% -7.1% 44% 19% -9.3%
all 33 -1.5% -10.8% 45% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 9% -10.5%
10% -19.4% 3% -19.1%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage452d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $15 +$2 +11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $95 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $37 −$6 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $86 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $3 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $33 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $35 +$7 +19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $103 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $24 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $1 $0 +23%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $51 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $24 $0 +2%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 09 $12 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $54 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $42 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $41 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $7 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $48 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $3 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $24 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $39 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $24 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $37 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $3 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $3 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $59 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $60 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $33 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $24 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $52 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $52 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.55 · official $53.02 (match) · 93 history records