Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40e5…e6ad crypto 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$454 (-24%) realized −$403 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$109
14 days−$40
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$111
crypto 32% −$311
world 8% −$24
sports 6% +$6
politics 5% −$58
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -39.7% -45.5% 12% 12% -28.8%
≤30d 35 -18.8% -26.5% 14% 11% -27.2%
≤90d 132 -37.4% -43.3% 7% 6% -33.8%
all 132 -37.4% -43.3% 7% 6% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 6% -33.8%
10% -48.8% 6% -40.1%
15% -53.7% 5% -45.9%
20% -58.2% 5% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$7 · ×6.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$403
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 123
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage81d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $156 −$26 -17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Jun 28 $29 −$3 -12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $39 +$30 +77%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $12 −$4 -30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $43 −$5 -11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 25 $59 −$57 -97%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Japan (-5.5) Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$69 +335%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 −$9 -17%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $9 +$91 +980%
Spread: Japan (-5.5) Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $22 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -64%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -35%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 −$28 -92%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 04 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $42 +$11 +27%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jun 02 $2 −$1 -33%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $115 −$79 -68%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 01 $16 −$9 -58%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 28 $11 −$11 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $7 +$7 +92%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? May 28 $20 −$18 -94%
Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026? May 28 $2 −$1 -47%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 25 $41 −$11 -28%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 23 $5 +$4 +95%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? May 21 $3 −$2 -52%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 21 $48 −$44 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $58 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? SELL No 13¢ $25 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY No 14¢ $29 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 93¢ $56 11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 11h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 12h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 12h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 12h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 15¢ $39 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $43 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 44h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 2¢ $15 2d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 2¢ $20 2d
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 2¢ $2 3d
Spread: Japan (-5.5) BUY Japan 1¢ $0 3d
Spread: Japan (-5.5) BUY Japan 1¢ $0 3d
Spread: Japan (-5.5) BUY Japan 1¢ $0 3d
Spread: Japan (-5.5) BUY Japan 1¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.00 · official $81.00 (match) · 414 history records