Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:50:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40e6…cb9f sports 381 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (486 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$236 (-12%) realized −$186 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%164W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day486.4pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$159
other 3% −$28
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (486 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 369 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 36% -18.3%
≤30d 369 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 36% -18.3%
≤90d 369 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 36% -18.3%
all 369 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 36% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover486.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 36% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 30% -26.1%
15% -31.2% 21% -33.3%
20% -38.0% 17% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses164 / 205
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions12
Markets (closed)369 / 381
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day486.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 78¢ 78¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 17¢ 18¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+9%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 71¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+42%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 25¢ 74¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+194%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 94¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+83%)
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 45¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Donna Vekic 73¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 77¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 39¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+156%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 92¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Under 60¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 80¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Tunisia 74¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 32¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +130%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$8 -39%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +216%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $32 +$47 +148%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$16 +317%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -45%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $7 −$3 -49%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 +$5 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $4 −$1 -32%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $6 +$2 +36%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $2 +$3 +141%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$4 +180%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $1 +$5 +474%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $4 −$1 -32%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$6 +94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 $0 -3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 −$9 -45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +107%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 45¢ $1 12m
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 45¢ $1 12m
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 45¢ $1 12m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 92¢ $1 15m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 92¢ $1 15m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 15m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 15m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 15m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 15m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 15m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 15m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 16m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $1 46m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $1 46m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $1 46m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 24¢ $1 46m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 46m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 27¢ $1 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 27¢ $1 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 84¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.00 · official $102.00 (match) · 3500 history records