Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40e8…88a4
sports · 268 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$22,981 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20,081 · open +$2,121
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,689
Realized+$20,081
Unrealized+$2,121
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses172 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3,291
Open positions6
Markets (closed)262 / 268
History coverage43d
Avg bet$1,044
Trades / day53.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 6 History 262 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,292
7 days+$19,368
14 days+$19,128
30 days+$18,136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 53¢ 100¢ $2,375 $4,498 +$2,123 (+89%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 80¢ 80¢ $800 $805 +$5 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $386 $388 +$3 (+1%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $360 $347 −$13 (-3%)
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 73¢ 74¢ $332 $333 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $315 $317 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) Shanghai Shenhua FC 81¢ 0¢ $1,134 $0 −$1,134 (-100%)
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Astralis 11¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 62¢ 0¢ $1,550 $0 −$1,550 (-100%)
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 0¢ $1,020 $0 −$1,020 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 59¢ 0¢ $4,412 $0 −$4,412 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs 9z 63¢ 0¢ $635 $0 −$635 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 61¢ 0¢ $2,430 $0 −$2,430 (-100%)
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 0.5 Over 75¢ 0¢ $750 $0 −$750 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 2 Winner paiN 50¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 56¢ 0¢ $2,810 $0 −$2,810 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 0.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $740 $0 −$740 (-100%)
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) Shanghai Haigang FC 77¢ 0¢ $1,160 $0 −$1,160 (-100%)
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5 Under 74¢ 0¢ $1,476 $0 −$1,476 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs 9z 67¢ 0¢ $1,339 $0 −$1,339 (-100%)
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 5.5 Under 80¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 73¢ 0¢ $1,825 $0 −$1,825 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,518 −$730 -48%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $130 +$31 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,199 +$162 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,753 +$1,246 +45%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,300 +$700 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,473 −$1,905 -55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,584 +$296 +19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $298 +$32 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $7,338 +$2,826 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,511 +$489 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2,428 −$2,099 -86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5,600 +$4,400 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,825 −$1,825 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,354 +$818 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,482 −$2,309 -66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $815 −$9 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $4,422 −$4,412 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,825 −$1,730 -95%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,338 +$572 +43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,333 +$667 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,603 +$897 +56%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $537 +$213 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $413 −$85 -21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,740 +$2,260 +82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $2,187 +$948 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $487 +$162 +33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $383 +$117 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3,226 +$1,774 +55%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,135 +$865 +76%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $343 +$157 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,312 +$1,688 +129%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $713 −$283 -40%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $974 +$139 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $700 +$208 +30%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $690 +$154 +22%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4,075 +$3,944 +97%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1,024 −$1,020 -100%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 09 $378 +$122 +32%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,685 +$565 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $393 −$115 -29%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,275 +$649 +28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $772 +$311 +40%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $580 −$420 -72%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $3,377 +$2,123 +63%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $738 −$308 -42%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,778 +$2,242 +59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $690 +$240 +35%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $2,607 −$51 -2%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $1,214 −$741 -61%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $515 +$99 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% +$22,232
other 11% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 72¢ $3 0m
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 72¢ $33 0m
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 72¢ $90 0m
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 74¢ $43 16m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 80¢ $805 17m
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 74¢ $201 18m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 30¢ $56 33m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 26¢ $3 34m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 26¢ $199 34m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 26¢ $284 34m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 26¢ $5 34m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 26¢ $166 34m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 27¢ $46 34m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 28¢ $30 34m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 34¢ $347 48m
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 77¢ $3 57m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $228 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $912 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 61¢ $1,206 1h
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 77¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $27 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $141 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $90 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $45 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +11.0% +0.4% 69% 69% +6.9%
≤30d 174 +5.0% -5.0% 66% 64% -1.2%
≤90d 262 +4.3% -5.6% 66% 63% -2.6%
all 262 +4.3% -5.6% 66% 63% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 63% -2.6%
10% -14.6% 49% -11.9%
15% ← realistic here -22.9% 32% -20.4%
20% -30.5% 16% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,688.61 · official $6,688.66 (match) · 2443 history records