Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40e9…c1ef crypto 394 markets active 2d ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-1%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate77%303W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$17
14 days−$41
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$25
politics 17% −$2
other 14% $0
sports 11% −$39
world 6% −$3
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -42.1% -47.6% 25% 25% -51.5%
≤30d 34 -20.1% -27.7% 65% 24% -24.7%
≤90d 182 -4.2% -13.4% 90% 5% -12.6%
all 393 -2.9% -12.2% 77% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -10.6%
10% -20.6% 1% -19.2%
15% -28.3% 1% -27.0%
20% -35.3% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses303 / 90
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)393 / 394
History coverage142d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $14 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $7 +$1 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $5 +$6 +119%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 06 $9 +$5 +49%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $6 +$7 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$12 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 01 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-19? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner May 29 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET May 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3AM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9PM ET May 15 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $5 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $9 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 7d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $9 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $8 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $5 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $7 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 68¢ $6 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $10 9d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $4 9d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 9d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 32¢ $7 10d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 89¢ $5 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 86¢ $8 10d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 80¢ $5 12d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 89¢ $5 12d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 67¢ $2 12d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 67¢ $4 12d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 67¢ $3 12d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $6 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 15d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 79¢ $9 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 16d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.69 · official $9.69 (match) · 1727 history records