Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40e9…4c3c
crypto · 1180 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses973 / 205
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1178 / 1180
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day274.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1178 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 0¢ 84¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 0¢ 70¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1178 +4.4% -5.5% 83% 56% -9.8%
≤30d 1178 +4.4% -5.5% 83% 56% -9.8%
≤90d 1178 +4.4% -5.5% 83% 56% -9.8%
all 1178 +4.4% -5.5% 83% 56% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover274.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 56% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 26% -18.5%
15% -22.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -30.4% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.89 · official $1.05 (match) · 2453 history records