Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40ea…06f0 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$13 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%23W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$10
other 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +7.6% -2.7% 53% 53% -6.3%
≤30d 56 -9.3% -18.0% 38% 30% -13.3%
≤90d 75 -25.9% -33.0% 31% 25% -11.4%
all 75 -25.9% -33.0% 31% 25% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 25% -11.4%
10% -39.4% 24% -19.9%
15% -45.3% 21% -27.6%
20% -50.6% 21% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses23 / 52
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 78
History coverage33d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 52¢ 92¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+76%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 68¢ 18¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-74%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 50¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$6 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 31 $9 −$1 -6%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $6 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 30 $3 $0 -14%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 30 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 30 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 30 $6 −$1 -19%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 30 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 30 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 30 $8 $0 -4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -50%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -47%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 29 $7 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 27 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 27 $8 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 27 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 21 $6 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 21 $19 −$18 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.24 · official $20.24 (match) · 179 history records