Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40eb…ade9 weather 698 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,131 (+3%) realized +$1,127 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%383W / 314L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days−$6
14 days−$87
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$807
crypto 0% −$51
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -15.6% -23.6% 47% 34% -10.0%
≤30d 220 -6.6% -15.5% 63% 41% -10.4%
≤90d 580 -2.2% -11.5% 57% 41% -9.8%
all 697 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 41% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 41% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 27% -16.1%
15% -24.1% 23% -24.2%
20% -31.5% 19% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$29 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$1,127
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses383 / 314
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)697 / 698
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 697 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $124 $128 +$4 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $7 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $9 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $127 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $88 +$16 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $46 +$11 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 +$54 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $9 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $11 +$6 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$6 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 +$5 +31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 19 $23 −$9 -39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $27 −$7 -25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $28 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $47 +$17 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $23 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $32 −$30 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 −$9 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 +$13 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$2 +7%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $17 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$5 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$3 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $42 +$22 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 −$18 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $206 −$161 -78%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $88 −$64 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $55 +$45 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $132 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $129 −$25 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $38 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $33 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $174 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $94 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $105 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? SELL No 16¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 63¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $96 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 80¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 76¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $66 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 82¢ $34 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 79¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 24h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.15 · official $128.15 (match) · 3405 history records