Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x40eb…ab82 crypto 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$344 (-7%) realized −$344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%146W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$387
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.1% -43.1% 40% 40% -30.9%
≤30d 5 -37.1% -43.1% 40% 40% -30.9%
≤90d 5 -37.1% -43.1% 40% 40% -30.9%
all 224 -5.1% -14.1% 65% 50% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 50% -16.2%
10% -22.3% 36% -24.3%
15% -29.8% 24% -31.6%
20% -36.7% 19% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses146 / 78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)224 / 224
History coverage151d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 224 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$14 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 24 $1 +$2 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 24 $2 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 23 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 23 $4 +$4 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 23 $12 +$20 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 09 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 09 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 09 $1 +$2 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 09 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 09 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 09 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 06 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 06 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $1 $0 +15%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 06 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -72%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 05 $1 $0 -39%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs FriendlyCampers (BO3) - Stake Mar 05 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 05 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 05 $9 +$10 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 05 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 05 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 05 $120 −$118 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 05 $110 −$108 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 05 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 05 $100 +$120 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 05 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 05 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 05 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 05 $60 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 05 $25 +$23 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 93d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $8 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $20 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 93d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $32 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $12 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $17 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $9 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 486 history records