Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40f6…25b6 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$186 (-37%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days−$21
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$155
sports 10% +$54
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +48.7% +34.5% 34% 34% -15.8%
≤30d 40 +24.1% +12.2% 30% 30% -30.7%
≤90d 40 +24.1% +12.2% 30% 30% -30.7%
all 40 +24.1% +12.2% 30% 30% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 30% -30.7%
10% +1.5% 30% -37.4%
15% -8.3% 30% -43.4%
20% -17.3% 28% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 51
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +47%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +96%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W Jun 23 $5 +$55 +1074%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $10 +$28 +278%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 +$5 +247%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 +$8 +207%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 +$36 +873%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +109%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 +$27 +525%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -91%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$21 +102%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -57%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qa BUY 2¢ $3 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 11¢ $5 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 30¢ $10 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 24h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 24h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 26h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 21¢ $5 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 30¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 26¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 8¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 26¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-0 BUY 11¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 7¢ $5 2d
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 6¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records