Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40f9…3b9c crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$268 (-9%) realized −$268 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate88%29W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -8.6% -17.3% 88% 3% -19.9%
≤30d 33 -8.6% -17.3% 88% 3% -19.9%
≤90d 33 -8.6% -17.3% 88% 3% -19.9%
all 33 -8.6% -17.3% 88% 3% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 3% -19.9%
10% -25.3% 0% -27.6%
15% -32.5% 0% -34.6%
20% -39.1% 0% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$109 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses29 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $85 −$84 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $71 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $146 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $143 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $136 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $127 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $134 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $130 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $129 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $126 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $125 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $121 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $113 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$8 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $97 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $85 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $150 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $146 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $143 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $136 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $127 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $67 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $64 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $62 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $59 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $57 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $56 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $55 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $54 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $52 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $51 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $136 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $134 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $130 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $129 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $126 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $125 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $121 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $113 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $105 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records