Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x40fb…3bd7 sports 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+1%) realized −$185 · open +$296
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%34W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$102
14 days+$532
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$324
other 32% +$595
sports 28% −$442
economics 7% +$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.7% +0.2% 50% 50% +10.4%
≤30d 60 +2.1% -7.7% 45% 43% -9.3%
≤90d 72 +2.3% -7.4% 44% 42% -6.7%
all 78 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 41% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 41% -12.9%
10% -18.6% 41% -21.2%
15% -26.5% 37% -28.9%
20% -33.7% 33% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$78 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$1,493
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$296
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses34 / 44
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions6
Markets (closed)78 / 84
History coverage122d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $200 $486 +$286 (+143%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $400 $382 −$18 (-5%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 40¢ 77¢ $147 $288 +$141 (+96%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $300 $197 −$103 (-34%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $71 −$26 -37%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $61 +$59 +97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$60 +119%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$71 +140%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $51 +$44 +87%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 −$33 -22%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 −$103 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$104 +203%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$213 +70%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$105 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$1 +4%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$83 +163%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$68 +134%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$1 -3%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$76 +250%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$103 +101%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $104 +$96 +92%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $110 +$90 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$141 +276%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $51 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $45 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $71 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $61 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 95¢ $169 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $51 7d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $101 7d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $51 8d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 8d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $119 9d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 11d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 11d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 11d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 11d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $155 11d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 12d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $101 12d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $51 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,493.30 · official $1,493.30 (match) · 259 history records