Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40fc…498d sports 529 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,487 (-8%) realized −$2,493 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%237W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$236est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$486
14 days−$1,164
30 days−$1,457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2,860
other 11% +$325
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +9.4% -1.0% 50% 38% -24.7%
≤30d 97 -16.4% -24.4% 39% 36% -27.5%
≤90d 266 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 37% -23.5%
all 527 -1.8% -11.2% 45% 44% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 44% -17.1%
10% -19.7% 42% -25.0%
15% -27.4% 36% -32.3%
20% -34.5% 29% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$50 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$2,493
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses237 / 290
Est. fees paid−$236
Open positions2
Markets (closed)527 / 529
History coverage220d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Alliance Guardians 39¢ 39¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 19¢ 20¢ $69 $74 +$5 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $152 +$142 +93%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $148 −$143 -97%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $233 −$230 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $94 −$92 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $39 +$107 +276%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $86 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $23 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $33 +$154 +469%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $88 −$1 -2%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $204 +$296 +146%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $52 +$45 +87%
Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 11 $52 +$47 +92%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $61 +$89 +146%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $194 +$73 +38%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $197 +$71 +36%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs GOAL (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $51 +$45 +88%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $51 −$3 -5%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Game Handicap: FEC (-1.5) vs BOMBA Team (+1.5) Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $11 −$11 -97%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 09 $102 +$111 +109%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $101 +$48 +48%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs NightBirds (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$58 +57%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $100 +$60 +60%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 04 $171 −$140 -82%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $33 −$32 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 39¢ $92 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Team Nemesis 19¢ $71 4h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 46¢ $102 26h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $152 29h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) SELL Solary 41¢ $2 2d
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 42¢ $148 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 55¢ $304 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $233 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 31¢ $102 3d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 36¢ $204 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $94 4d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B SELL Nexus 85¢ $87 5d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B BUY Nexus 84¢ $65 5d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B BUY Nexus 84¢ $21 5d
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Eintracht Spandau 48¢ $102 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 67¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 48¢ $23 5d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $88 5d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 48¢ $51 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $39 5d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G SELL MARKandLARRY 15¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY MARKandLARRY 17¢ $33 5d
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs BUY F5 Esports $7 5d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 62¢ $101 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 69¢ $101 6d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 40¢ $102 6d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 40¢ $102 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 69¢ $101 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $61 7d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) BUY WLGaming Esports 25¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.76 · official $164.76 (match) · 885 history records