Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4103…95f0 sports 78 markets active 10d ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$227 (-12%) realized −$227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%34W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$128
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$12
other 40% −$259
crypto 16% −$11
world 4% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 27 -3.8% -13.0% 44% 41% -14.7%
≤90d 27 -3.8% -13.0% 44% 41% -14.7%
all 78 -16.1% -24.1% 44% 42% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 42% -21.9%
10% -31.3% 29% -29.4%
15% -38.0% 17% -36.2%
20% -44.1% 12% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses34 / 44
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage107d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $108 −$13 -12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $56 −$2 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 +$57 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -94%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 +$56 +158%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$46 -90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 +$48 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$19 -62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$24 -78%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$18 -60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 +$30 +72%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$44 +109%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$14 +46%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $51 +$51 +100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$32 +308%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $56 +$2 +3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 15 $15 −$11 -71%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $20 −$8 -39%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Mar 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Burnley FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Mar 14 $17 +$5 +32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $40 −$32 -81%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $35 +$12 +35%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 12 $15 +$3 +20%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Mar 11 $25 +$5 +21%
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 11 $40 +$5 +12%
Pacers vs. Kings Mar 11 $32 −$6 -18%
Bulls vs. Warriors Mar 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Suns vs. Bucks Mar 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Raptors vs. Rockets Mar 11 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? Mar 08 $20 −$17 -87%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 06 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 06 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 06 $20 −$4 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $18 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $46 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $36 11d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $46 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 2¢ $1 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $20 11d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $36 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $45 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 5¢ $5 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $51 13d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $104 13d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 20¢ $2 13d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 20¢ $10 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 2¢ $3 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 9¢ $15 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 1¢ $4 13d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $30 14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $15 14d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $56 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 79¢ $60 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 19¢ $12 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 45¢ $30 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 76¢ $70 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records