Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4104…9a7c other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$94 (-5%) realized −$65 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$54
14 days−$80
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$233
sports 22% +$126
crypto 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.0% +14.9% 100% 100% +14.9%
≤30d 19 -19.4% -27.1% 47% 47% -20.2%
≤90d 23 -22.7% -30.1% 43% 43% -16.5%
all 23 -22.7% -30.1% 43% 43% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 43% -16.5%
10% -36.8% 35% -24.5%
15% -42.9% 30% -31.8%
20% -48.5% 26% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$26 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$691
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)23 / 28
History coverage60d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $220 $242 +$22 (+10%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $283 $239 −$43 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $200 +$54 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $264 −$106 -40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $62 +$37 +60%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $109 +$20 +19%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $70 −$69 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $11 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $40 +$35 +90%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $19 +$15 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $31 −$10 -33%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $76 +$44 +58%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $113 10h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 10h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $253 10h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $200 19h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $176 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $123 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 11d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $101 11d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 53¢ $152 11d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $162 11d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 11d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $99 11d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $10 11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 11d
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 11d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $52 11d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $117 13d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 14d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $42 14d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $129 14d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $109 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $690.65 · official $690.65 (match) · 58 history records