Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x4105…4ae3 sports 16 markets active 5d ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-3%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$46
culture 25% −$1
politics 16% −$2
crypto 13% +$33
other 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -33.3% -39.7% 33% 33% -28.3%
all 16 -11.1% -19.5% 19% 19% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 19% -12.7%
10% -27.2% 19% -21.0%
15% -34.3% 19% -28.7%
20% -40.7% 19% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage532d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Mar 30 $14 −$14 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 Mar 23 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8PM ET Feb 13 $15 +$15 +96%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5 Jan 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Nov 16 $20 +$19 +96%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $47 −$1 -2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Oct 08 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? Oct 02 $21 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Virtus.pro Sep 28 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 16 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament Jul 15 $73 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? Jul 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Mar 30 $2 −$1 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY Australia $3 5d
Netherlands vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $14 83d
RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 126d
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $23 145d
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $12 194d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 215d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 253d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 253d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $33 253d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $33 253d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 37¢ $29 253d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 253d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 259d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 55¢ $19 259d
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? SELL No 51¢ $21 259d
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? BUY No 53¢ $21 259d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Virtus.pro SELL M80 50¢ $32 263d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Virtus.pro BUY M80 51¢ $32 263d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 45¢ $50 337d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 45¢ $50 337d
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament SELL No 53¢ $70 337d
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament BUY No 56¢ $73 337d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 55¢ $74 338d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 55¢ $74 338d
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? SELL No 34¢ $28 338d
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? BUY No 35¢ $29 338d
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 445d
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 536d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records