Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4108…a80d
sports · 277 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,247 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,339 · open −$99
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$315
Realized+$1,339
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses175 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)273 / 277
History coverage201d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 4 History 273 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 84¢ $133 $229 +$95 (+71%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 16¢ $78 $40 −$38 (-49%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 97¢ $31 $39 +$7 (+24%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 3¢ $51 $7 −$44 (-86%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 0¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-95%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $57 +$1 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $786 +$23 +3%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $289 +$11 +4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $751 +$23 +3%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $64 −$44 -68%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Mar 19 $681 +$97 +14%
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m? Mar 19 $119 +$3 +3%
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 143m and 157m? Mar 19 $8 −$6 -85%
Will FrankResearcher win the competition? Mar 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? Mar 19 $110 −$25 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 7PM ET Mar 19 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 19 $69 −$9 -13%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb Mar 19 $37 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) Mar 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Jazz vs. Knicks Mar 19 $110 −$10 -9%
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-05? Mar 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Spurs vs. Cavaliers Mar 19 $634 −$34 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Mar 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO1) Mar 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 19 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-05? Mar 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Hobart International: Katie Volynets vs Ann Li Mar 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Lakers vs. Celtics Mar 19 $303 −$27 -9%
Wizards vs. Suns Mar 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Mar 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Devils Mar 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Stars vs. Sharks Mar 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Mar 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Mar 19 $134 −$34 -25%
Spread: Celtics (-11.5) Mar 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Mallorca win on 2025-12-05? Mar 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pistons Mar 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Team Falcons (BO1) Mar 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Jensen Huang be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Mar 19 $130 −$76 -58%
>3.1 million TSA travelers any day November 23-30? Mar 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% −$548
other 25% −$1,548
culture 7% +$2,753
politics 6% +$204
tech 5% +$417
crypto 5% −$478
economics 2% +$148
world 1% +$293
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $8 5m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 5m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $8 5m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 8m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $8 9m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $16 9m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 9m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $4 11m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $4 13m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 15m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 16m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $6 20m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 31¢ $9 24m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 31¢ $1 24m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 31¢ $2 24m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 31¢ $46 24m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 32m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $16 33m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 39m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 41m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 42m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 59m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $8 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $8 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $7 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.6% -20.0% 80% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 5 -11.6% -20.0% 80% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 92 -71.5% -74.3% 9% 2% -43.4%
all 273 -0.1% -9.7% 64% 24% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 24% -8.2%
10% -18.3% 14% -17.0%
15% -26.2% 11% -25.0%
20% -33.4% 9% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.03 · official $315.03 (match) · 3500 history records