Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4109…c8bd crypto 1385 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$162 (+0%) realized +$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate78%1083W / 308L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day65.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$8
14 days−$389
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -0.4% -9.9% 83% 1% -8.8%
≤30d 1190 -1.8% -11.1% 79% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 1391 -0.7% -10.1% 78% 5% -8.9%
all 1391 -0.7% -10.1% 78% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 5% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 2% -17.6%
15% -26.6% 1% -25.6%
20% -33.8% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1083 / 308
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1391 / 1385
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day65.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1391 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$6 -1474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +427%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$25 -5000%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -800%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records