trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 57¢ | 57¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $50 | +$1 | +2% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 08 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Jun 12 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend | Jun 08 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | -14% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? | Jun 07 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 06 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 05 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | May 06 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 27 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? | Apr 26 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 26 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | Apr 25 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win less than 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canad | Apr 25 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 24 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 24 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? | Apr 18 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? | Mar 30 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 67% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 67% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 67% | 0% | -8.6% |
| all | 22 | -9.0% | -17.7% | 59% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.7% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -25.5% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -32.7% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -39.3% | 0% | -33.3% |