Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4109…ad6b
other · 400 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3,996 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,483 · open +$494
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,766
Realized+$3,483
Unrealized+$494
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses127 / 219
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions54
Markets (closed)346 / 400
History coverage226d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 54 History 346 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$196
14 days+$338
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 58¢ 95¢ $250 $409 +$159 (+64%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 94¢ 98¢ $367 $384 +$17 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $300 $327 +$27 (+9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 98¢ $200 $317 +$117 (+58%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $234 $297 +$63 (+27%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 88¢ $198 $266 +$68 (+34%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+6%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 83¢ 84¢ $208 $211 +$4 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $229 $210 −$19 (-8%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $154 $161 +$7 (+5%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 82¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 87¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 78¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+8%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 94¢ $40 $54 +$14 (+35%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$11 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $23 +$12 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $45 −$45 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $75 +$25 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$14 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$12 +24%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $78 +$22 +29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $45 +$17 +37%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $239 +$61 +26%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $73 +$27 +38%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $130 +$70 +54%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $101 +$29 +29%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 31 $11 −$11 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $40 +$20 +52%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 24 $100 +$20 +20%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 May 04 $3,672 +$890 +24%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $8,933 −$500 -6%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $5,522 +$4,321 +78%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat Apr 21 $388 −$160 -41%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Mar 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 24 $188 +$5 +3%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win the Bangladesh parliamentary Mar 18 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 Mar 15 $78 −$4 -5%
Devils vs. Sabres Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Senators vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5 Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Rangers vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5 Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Flames vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5 Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Lightning vs. Red Wings Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Devils vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Stars Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Rangers vs. Bruins Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bills vs. Steelers Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Jets vs. Hurricanes Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 66% +$4,249
other 17% +$481
world 7% −$201
crypto 3% −$94
sports 3% −$406
economics 3% −$219
tech 1% +$123
culture 0% +$34
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 40¢ $0 37m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 40¢ $18 38m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 39m
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 78¢ $20 41m
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 77¢ $19 41m
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 46m
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 48m
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 48m
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 53m
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL No 3¢ $2 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 10¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $20 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 17h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 17h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $25 17h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $23 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 38h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 38h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $20 39h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $25 39h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 46h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 46h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 55¢ $5 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 55¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +33.1% +20.4% 81% 81% +14.5%
≤30d 24 +17.7% +6.5% 75% 75% -0.8%
≤90d 33 +16.8% +5.7% 76% 67% +11.5%
all 346 -29.8% -36.5% 37% 32% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 32% +1.7%
10% -42.6% 27% -8.1%
15% -48.1% 22% -16.9%
20% -53.2% 17% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,766.11 · official $4,766.12 (match) · 1206 history records