Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x410a…af40 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%10W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$3
sports 29% −$2
other 26% −$4
world 8% $0
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -10.9% -19.4% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -12.9% -21.2% 22% 0% -9.8%
all 59 -13.9% -22.1% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -29.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -36.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -42.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses10 / 49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage232d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 20 $82 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -37%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $84 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $83 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $83 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $266 −$1 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 07 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $6 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 23 $82 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $1 $0 -10%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Feb 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 12 $87 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 07 $84 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 04 $81 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 31 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $83 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $88 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Jan 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 25 $1 $0 -33%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $273 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $90 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 05 $86 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 21 $87 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 06 $1 $0 -33%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 06 $89 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $91 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $83 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $83 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $83 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $82 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $82 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $82 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $83 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 26d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 29d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 36d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? BUY No 0¢ $1 109d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 109d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 109d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 110d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 110d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 112d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $84 115d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 115d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.03 · official $83.03 (match) · 220 history records