Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x410b…0152 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,566 (+13%) realized +$1,601 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$2,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$1,767
sports 10% −$423
crypto 2% +$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.2% -5.7% 47% 47% +4.9%
≤30d 34 +4.2% -5.7% 47% 47% +4.9%
≤90d 34 +4.2% -5.7% 47% 47% +4.9%
all 34 +4.2% -5.7% 47% 47% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 47% +4.9%
10% -14.7% 44% -5.1%
15% -23.0% 44% -14.3%
20% -30.5% 29% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$259 vs −$145 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2,523
Realized+$1,601
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage6d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $941 $949 +$8 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $700 $696 −$4 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $417 $414 −$3 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $200 $174 −$26 (-13%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 +$210 +42%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$54 -52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$102 +100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,788 +$918 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$12 -12%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 +$730 +711%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $803 +$95 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $374 +$242 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $708 +$446 +63%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$29 -28%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $605 +$240 +40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $408 −$400 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$222 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$120 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$145 +48%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$242 +237%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $702 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 4h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $49 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $205 7h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 7h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $435 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $809 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $421 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $90 27h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $832 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $898 29h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $374 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,155 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $73 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $203 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,522.88 · official $2,522.88 (match) · 72 history records