Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x410d…4c78 crypto 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$279 (-9%) realized −$279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate70%85W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$10
14 days−$332
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$294
other 10% +$14
tech 9% +$7
politics 5% −$3
crypto 5% −$14
culture 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +10.2% -0.3% 71% 24% -6.4%
≤30d 49 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 27% -22.3%
≤90d 122 -3.0% -12.2% 70% 26% -15.6%
all 122 -3.0% -12.2% 70% 26% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 26% -15.6%
10% -20.6% 17% -23.7%
15% -28.3% 10% -31.1%
20% -35.3% 6% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses85 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)122 / 134
History coverage71d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $132 +$4 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25 Jun 26 $3 +$1 +41%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND W Jun 25 $4 +$6 +146%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $3 +$4 +124%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $12 $0 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $66 −$2 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $29 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 +30%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $18 +$5 +30%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $30 +$9 +31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $48 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $16 −$3 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $317 −$161 -51%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $20 −$7 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $232 −$108 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $80 −$67 -83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $84 −$24 -28%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $224 +$15 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3 $0 -8%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1 $0 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $168 +$16 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $24 −$7 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $61 −$9 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $63 −$19 -29%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $1 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $32 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 11¢ $48 38h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 2d
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 2d
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $92 2d
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 3d
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 3d
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 3d
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25 BUY 70¢ $3 3d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $4 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $91 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.80 · official $57.80 (match) · 601 history records