Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:05:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x410d…dd1f world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate28%21W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% $0
other 23% $0
politics 17% −$3
sports 16% −$11
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 60% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 22 -0.5% -10.0% 32% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 70 +1.0% -8.7% 29% 1% -9.6%
all 75 -1.8% -11.1% 28% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 1% -10.0%
10% -19.6% 1% -18.6%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses21 / 54
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 78
History coverage491d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $40 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $31 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $32 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $119 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $99 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $68 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $76 +$2 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $34 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $14 −$2 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $27 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $66 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $67 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $36 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $27 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $9 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $30 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $17 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $14 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $31 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 78¢ $24 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 78¢ $7 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $31 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $26 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $6 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $25 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $25 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.18 · official $35.91 · 338 history records