Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x410e…8e78 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$529 (+30%) realized +$529 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day91.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$365
sports 10% +$247
other 6% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +58.2% +43.2% 48% 48% +27.3%
≤30d 27 +58.2% +43.2% 48% 48% +27.3%
≤90d 27 +58.2% +43.2% 48% 48% +27.3%
all 27 +58.2% +43.2% 48% 48% +27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.2% 48% +27.3%
10% ← realistic here +29.5% 48% +15.1%
15% +17.0% 48% +4.0%
20% +5.5% 44% -6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +105% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$48 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$529
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day91.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $311 +$363 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $259 +$267 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $185 −$176 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $66 −$63 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$65 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$23 +430%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$60 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$94 +93%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $178 +$247 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$165 +1036%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$35 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$21 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $674 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $526 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $259 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $14 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $96 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records