trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -4.2% | -13.3% | 0% | 0% | -13.3% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 50% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 33% | 0% | -10.1% |
| all | 29 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 45% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.5% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -19.1% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -26.9% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -34.1% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $29 | $29 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $7 | $0 | -4% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 25 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 23 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 21 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 21 | $24 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? | Sep 18 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Sep 18 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 18 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 17 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Sep 17 | $36 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 10 | $36 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? | Sep 10 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Sep 09 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Sep 09 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | Sep 09 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 08 | $2 | −$1 | -36% |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Sep 08 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5? | Sep 05 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 02 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Sep 02 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Sep 02 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Sep 02 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Sep 02 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 02 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 29 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | Aug 29 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? | Aug 27 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Aug 27 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Aug 27 | $36 | $0 | +0% |