Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x410f…ab16 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% $0
other 34% +$1
sports 10% $0
world 9% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 2 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 3 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -10.1%
all 29 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage300d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $7 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $21 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 18 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 08 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 13h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 31d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $21 275d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 87¢ $18 275d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $21 277d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 277d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 277d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 278d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 94¢ $14 278d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 94¢ $14 278d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 278d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 278d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 84¢ $24 278d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 278d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 278d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL No 98¢ $36 279d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 96¢ $36 286d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $36 286d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $36 286d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? SELL No 98¢ $36 286d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? BUY No 98¢ $36 286d
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? SELL No 99¢ $36 286d
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY No 99¢ $36 287d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $36 287d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $36 287d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.44 · official $29.44 (match) · 81 history records