Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4117…0c4d
other · 48 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$38 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)39 / 48
History coverage122d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 9 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 58¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 75¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 50¢ 22¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 76¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? No 100¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 19 $8 +$2 +23%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 06 $26 +$4 +15%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 30 $24 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $50 −$1 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 25 $35 −$6 -17%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $26 −$22 -85%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 14 $48 $0 -0%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in March? Apr 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 04 $12 +$2 +16%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 04 $41 +$14 +33%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $52 −$15 -28%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 19 $37 +$8 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $31 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 03 $59 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $78 −$1 -1%
Did Avenir Tech LTD blow up? Feb 27 $17 $0 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Feb 21 $9 $0 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Feb 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Feb 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? Feb 14 $2 +$2 +74%
Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 14 $1 $0 +39%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 11? Feb 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Feb 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 14 $5 $0 +1%
Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Feb 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% −$49
crypto 14% +$5
world 11% $0
tech 5% +$2
culture 4% +$8
politics 3% $0
economics 1% −$2
finance 1% +$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 5h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 5h
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 5h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 5h
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 5h
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 5h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 5h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 14d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 93¢ $6 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 100¢ $12 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 83¢ $9 24d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $5 24d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 81¢ $10 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 89¢ $4 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 29d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 30¢ $5 29d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 42¢ $2 31d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 42¢ $2 31d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 42¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 +6.0% -4.1% 40% 30% -7.3%
≤90d 24 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 29% -15.2%
all 39 -3.1% -12.3% 56% 28% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 28% -13.3%
10% -20.7% 13% -21.6%
15% -28.4% 5% -29.2%
20% -35.4% 3% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.59 · official $26.05 · 163 history records