Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4119…96f0 other 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,145 (-1%) realized −$1,146 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate22%30W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$763per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$416
politics 39% −$49
sports 13% −$698
world 4% −$1
tech 2% −$46
culture 2% +$35
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 +1.5% -8.1% 9% 2% -8.8%
all 137 -5.0% -14.0% 22% 7% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 7% -10.5%
10% -22.3% 7% -19.1%
15% -29.8% 6% -26.9%
20% -36.6% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,102) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$707
Realized−$1,146
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses30 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage155d
Avg bet$763
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $706 $707 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 27 $264 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $247 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,224 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $212 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,708 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,780 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,522 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,102 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $920 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,926 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $263 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 02 $488 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 27 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,559 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,206 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,108 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,207 −$3 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 04 $147 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $858 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $373 −$44 -12%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,189 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $3,125 −$3 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,271 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,278 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,247 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,492 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $3,273 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $3,362 −$3 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $555 12m
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $556 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $263 2h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $264 5h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $330 18h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 22h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $206 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $207 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $246 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $247 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $314 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $314 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $706 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $947 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $948 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,013 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,014 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,083 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,084 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,100 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,102 15d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,138 15d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,140 15d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $781 15d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $781 16d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $919 19d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $920 20d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $880 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $707.11 · official $707.11 (match) · 430 history records