Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x411b…9e28 weather 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate76%140W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$9
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% −$6
crypto 28% −$9
sports 3% −$4
other 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -2.3% -11.6% 91% 5% -10.9%
≤30d 184 -4.6% -13.7% 76% 28% -10.7%
≤90d 184 -4.6% -13.7% 76% 28% -10.7%
all 184 -4.6% -13.7% 76% 28% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 28% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 18% -19.2%
15% -29.5% 13% -27.0%
20% -36.4% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses140 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)184 / 191
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? No 92¢ 91¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 88¢ 87¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on June 4? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 5? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $20 −$8 -39%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $5 46m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 54m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 98¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $17 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.65 · official $85.65 (match) · 372 history records