trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +24.9% | +13.0% | 100% | 67% | -0.3% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -37.5% | -43.5% | 50% | 33% | -5.7% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -37.5% | -43.5% | 50% | 33% | -5.7% |
| all | 36 | -23.8% | -31.1% | 53% | 31% | -5.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.1% | 31% | -5.0% |
| 10% | -37.7% | 17% | -14.1% |
| 15% | -43.7% | 14% | -22.4% |
| 20% | -49.2% | 8% | -30.0% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $501 | +$47 | +9% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 22 | $10 | +$2 | +20% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 22 | $10 | +$5 | +46% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 06 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Pistons vs. Knicks | Apr 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | Apr 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | Jan 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024? | Jan 23 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? | Jan 23 | $10 | +$2 | +18% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Jan 23 | $11 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Jan 23 | $570 | +$28 | +5% |
| Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state? | Nov 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | Nov 16 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Nov 09 | $10 | +$2 | +18% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 09 | $10 | +$7 | +67% |
| Kamala Harris fires campaign manager? | Nov 06 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $492 | +$35 | +7% |
| Kings vs. Lakers | Nov 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Hawks | Oct 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bulls vs. Bucks | Oct 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | Oct 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election? | Oct 27 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Rockets | Oct 27 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Kings | Oct 25 | $15 | +$16 | +108% |
| Celtics vs. Wizards | Oct 25 | $2 | −$2 | -83% |
| Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024? | Oct 24 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Suns vs. Clippers | Oct 24 | $2 | +$4 | +195% |
| Grizzlies vs. Jazz | Oct 24 | $70 | +$22 | +31% |
| Nets vs. Hawks | Oct 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | Oct 24 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Oct 23 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | Oct 23 | $99 | +$20 | +20% |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | Oct 23 | $43 | +$3 | +7% |
| Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Oct 21 | $20 | +$9 | +44% |