Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x411f…d6a3 other 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 215L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$31
sports 20% −$15
politics 9% −$7
culture 9% −$8
economics 8% −$7
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 231 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage128d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 97¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $562 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $768 −$2 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $417 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $427 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $367 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $723 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $246 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $245 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $594 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $642 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $140 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $147 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $704 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $133 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $131 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $86 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $140 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $579 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $303 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $390 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 03 $673 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $55 2m
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 2h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 4h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 6h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 11h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 12h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 13h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 15h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 19h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 21h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 23h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 25h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 26h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 28h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 29h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 31h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 32h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 34h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 39h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 40h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 3d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.88 · official $54.88 (match) · 1308 history records