Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4120…6a0d
crypto · 4 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$25 -33%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% −$1
crypto 41% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.8% -37.4% 33% 0% -81.2%
≤30d 3 -30.8% -37.4% 33% 0% -81.2%
≤90d 3 -30.8% -37.4% 33% 0% -81.2%
all 3 -30.8% -37.4% 33% 0% -81.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 0% -81.2%
10% -43.4% 0% -83.0%
15% -48.9% 0% -84.7%
20% -53.9% 0% -86.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.43 · official $43.43 (match) · 7 history records