Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x4120…cc46 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$31
politics 18% −$4
sports 6% −$17
culture 5% −$2
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -3.0% -12.3% 10% 5% -9.8%
all 102 -3.0% -12.3% 10% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -9.8%
10% -20.7% 5% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 5% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)102 / 106
History coverage92d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 49¢ 48¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $377 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $205 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 17 $347 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $341 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $320 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $365 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $172 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $174 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $342 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $181 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $172 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $175 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $169 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $314 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $19 $0 +1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $166 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 28 $183 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $176 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $314 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $174 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $12 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $5 5h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 18h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 21h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 39h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $105 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $34 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $34 5d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $23 19d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 22d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 24d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 25d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.92 · official $155.92 (match) · 299 history records