Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4121…6e58 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$103 (-6%) realized −$97 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$24
world 25% +$44
sports 12% −$71
crypto 3% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.1% -8.6% 62% 57% -14.6%
≤30d 21 +1.1% -8.6% 62% 57% -14.6%
≤90d 21 +1.1% -8.6% 62% 57% -14.6%
all 21 +1.1% -8.6% 62% 57% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 57% -14.6%
10% -17.3% 57% -22.8%
15% -25.3% 48% -30.3%
20% -32.6% 29% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$56 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage11d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $43 +$18 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $422 +$44 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$17 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $75 −$33 -44%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 +$31 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $101 −$71 -70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$43 -85%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$38 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $43 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $100 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $42 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $42 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $75 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $44 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 3d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $30 3d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $101 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 40¢ $366 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $322 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.21 · official $123.21 (match) · 44 history records