Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
41 0x4124…9301 crypto 1552 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$194 (+1%) realized +$194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate83%1286W / 266L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$137
14 days+$137
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 +3.1% -6.7% 97% 7% -5.7%
≤30d 551 +1.0% -8.6% 90% 49% -8.0%
≤90d 1274 +0.3% -9.3% 86% 63% -8.7%
all 1552 +0.0% -9.5% 83% 64% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 64% -8.9%
10% -18.2% 21% -17.6%
15% -26.1% 6% -25.6%
20% -33.3% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1286 / 266
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1552 / 1552
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1552 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $44 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $56 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $58 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $58 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $43 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $23 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $49 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records