Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4125…868c
other · 406 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$741 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$741 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$741
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses65 / 341
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)406 / 406
History coverage205d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 0 History 406 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$82
14 days−$143
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? No 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $48 −$22 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $73 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 −$4 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $23 −$1 -6%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 −$7 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $1 $0 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $34 −$1 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 -3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 -2%
Will Andrew Clough be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $4 $0 -3%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $0 $0 -25%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $80 −$6 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 +14%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $3 −$1 -27%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Govern Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 08 $48 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $34 −$9 -25%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 08 $16 −$2 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $49 $0 -1%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $40 −$5 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $19 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% −$195
weather 17% −$138
sports 17% −$114
world 9% −$26
finance 8% −$142
politics 8% −$69
tech 4% −$11
culture 2% −$33
crypto 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 55¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 34¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 44¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 23¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 78¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 78¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 44¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 19¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 38¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 43¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 18¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 18¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 44¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 54¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 43¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 43¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 43¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 43¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 44¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 42¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 42¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 46¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 45¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 46¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 47¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 48¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 48¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -16.6% -24.5% 9% 4% -16.7%
≤30d 177 -14.9% -23.0% 9% 3% -16.4%
≤90d 286 -13.0% -21.3% 13% 6% -16.0%
all 406 -12.4% -20.7% 16% 6% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 6% -15.4%
10% -28.3% 3% -23.5%
15% -35.3% 2% -30.9%
20% -41.6% 1% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1565 history records