Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4127…a8ce crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$30
weather 42% +$29
other 2% −$11
sports 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.5%
≤30d 40 -21.9% -29.3% 48% 38% -15.2%
≤90d 40 -21.9% -29.3% 48% 38% -15.2%
all 40 -21.9% -29.3% 48% 38% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 38% -15.2%
10% -36.1% 30% -23.3%
15% -42.3% 18% -30.7%
20% -47.9% 15% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage18d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 29? Yes 64¢ 90¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 29? No 80¢ 90¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $122 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +25%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$26 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $5 +$10 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$15 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 29? BUY No 80¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 67¢ $126 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 63¢ $122 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $6 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $7 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 17d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $11 17d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 17d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 17d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 17d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 17d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.32 · official $125.32 (match) · 99 history records