Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4128…eee9
crypto · 561 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$177 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$178 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses239 / 320
Open positions2
Markets (closed)559 / 561
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day52.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 559 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$112
14 days−$153
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 33¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+202%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$11 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$176
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -27.6% -34.5% 36% 35% -28.2%
≤30d 559 -13.1% -21.4% 43% 42% -18.9%
≤90d 559 -13.1% -21.4% 43% 42% -18.9%
all 559 -13.1% -21.4% 43% 42% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 42% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 39% -26.6%
15% -35.8% 36% -33.7%
20% -42.1% 29% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.05 · official $1.42 · 1334 history records