Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x412a…802c sports 725 markets active 1h ago coverage 415d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$786 (+1%) realized +$821 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%341W / 380L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$18
14 days−$89
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,490
other 9% +$2,221
crypto 1% −$226
politics 0% +$30
finance 0% −$24
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +31.2% +18.7% 57% 57% -11.9%
≤30d 20 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 45% -19.2%
≤90d 173 +3.9% -6.0% 49% 47% -7.3%
all 721 -0.7% -10.1% 47% 47% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 47% -8.8%
10% -18.7% 46% -17.5%
15% -26.6% 44% -25.5%
20% -33.8% 41% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$79 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

415d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$821
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses341 / 380
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions4
Markets (closed)721 / 725
History coverage415d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 721 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 34¢ 32¢ $105 $100 −$5 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 32¢ $81 $73 −$8 (-10%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card) Hyder Amil 33¢ 2¢ $25 $1 −$23 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 312 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $158 −$158 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $71 +$39 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 17 $53 −$53 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 +$167 +307%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 17 $107 +$92 +86%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $177 −$173 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $96 +$67 +70%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $72 −$70 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $143 +$89 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $123 −$4 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 01 $72 +$22 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 01 $131 +$28 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 01 $224 −$24 -11%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh Jun 01 $73 +$149 +205%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 01 $158 −$158 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $91 −$90 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) May 28 $180 −$178 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 23 $187 −$134 -71%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $217 +$186 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $163 +$159 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 18 $108 +$170 +156%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 16 $54 −$2 -4%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 16 $114 −$112 -99%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 16 $68 −$66 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 11 $132 −$131 -99%
Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik May 11 $110 −$55 -50%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 11 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $108 +$70 +64%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $110 +$91 +83%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $134 +$90 +67%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $44 +$73 +165%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $73 +$54 +73%
Gwangju FC vs. Gangwon FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $54 +$44 +82%
Fluminense FC vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to Score May 09 $109 −$109 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $110 −$109 -99%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Incheon United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $111 −$109 -98%
Coritiba FBC vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 May 09 $55 −$54 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $293 −$289 -99%
Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu May 08 $54 −$54 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Damir Dzumhur May 08 $44 −$43 -98%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 07 $27 −$27 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 07 $220 +$190 +86%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to Score May 05 $91 +$100 +109%
Will Sepp Straka finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Truist Championship? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5 May 05 $55 −$54 -98%
Aix en Provence: Zizou Bergs vs Alejandro Tabilo May 04 $109 +$58 +53%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev May 04 $167 +$33 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 33¢ $25 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 83¢ $158 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 64¢ $71 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $107 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $82 2d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 53¢ $53 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $105 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $54 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $72 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $96 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $36 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $36 11d
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 11d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $107 12d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Bryce Mitchell 55¢ $119 14d
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P BUY Joanderson Brito 61¢ $71 14d
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P BUY Joanderson Brito 61¢ $71 15d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 56¢ $2 19d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 56¢ $64 19d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $158 19d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 56¢ $57 19d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Song Yadong 82¢ $131 21d
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Cody Haddon 76¢ $72 21d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $91 22d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Perez 56¢ $108 23d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Alonzo Menifield 31¢ $29 23d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Bruno Silva 53¢ $180 23d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Perez 56¢ $1 23d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Perez 56¢ $3 23d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Perez 56¢ $29 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.67 · official $191.05 · 1931 history records