Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x412d…2e73 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$108 (-26%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$58
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$35
sports 30% −$28
other 18% −$4
culture 11% −$43
economics 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-69.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.1% -55.8% 0% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 13 -71.9% -74.6% 15% 8% -38.8%
≤90d 13 -71.9% -74.6% 15% 8% -38.8%
all 15 -66.2% -69.4% 20% 13% -44.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.4% 13% -44.3%
10% -72.3% 13% -49.7%
15% -75.0% 0% -54.5%
20% -77.5% 0% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage127d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 35¢ 34¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $39 −$1 -2%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $72 +$17 +23%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $83 −$19 -23%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo Jun 07 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 07 $68 −$51 -75%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 06 $12 −$3 -24%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on Spotify this we Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 02 $29 −$4 -13%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the Mar 05 $31 −$29 -91%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in January? Feb 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 76¢ $38 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 77¢ $39 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 34¢ $1 3h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $29 3h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No $1 4d
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No $1 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL No 90¢ $13 10d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY No 90¢ $14 10d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL No 87¢ $22 10d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY No 90¢ $23 10d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL No 87¢ $22 10d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY No 90¢ $23 10d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY No $3 12d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el SELL Yes 95¢ $13 12d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el SELL No $1 12d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY No $1 12d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el SELL No $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.59 · official $27.60 (match) · 125 history records