Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x412d…c974 crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,049 (-12%) realized −$3,049 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%46W / 40L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,742
sports 4% −$453
other 3% −$655
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +39.1% +25.9% 67% 67% -5.8%
≤30d 3 +39.1% +25.9% 67% 67% -5.8%
≤90d 3 +39.1% +25.9% 67% 67% -5.8%
all 86 -20.2% -27.8% 53% 40% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 40% -20.0%
10% -34.7% 29% -27.7%
15% -41.0% 23% -34.7%
20% -46.8% 21% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$192 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,049
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses46 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage162d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $513 +$492 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$24 +67%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $990 −$453 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 27 $360 −$360 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Feb 27 $299 +$67 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 27 $388 −$388 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 26 $199 +$190 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 25 $9 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 25 $11 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 25 $2 +$2 +82%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 25 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 25 $4 +$4 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 25 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 22 $51 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 22 $167 +$85 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 22 $33 +$19 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Feb 22 $98 −$97 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Feb 22 $91 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Feb 22 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 22 $51 +$38 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Feb 22 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Feb 19 $980 −$980 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 19 $792 −$782 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Feb 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Feb 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Feb 19 $300 −$296 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Feb 19 $150 +$350 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 19 $9 +$21 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Feb 19 $1,047 +$126 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 19 $262 −$258 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 19 $872 +$40 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 19 $500 +$372 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 19 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 19 $200 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 17 $566 +$19 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 17 $585 −$576 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 17 $279 +$72 +26%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 17 $519 +$103 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 17 $430 +$89 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 540 history records