Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4131…9853 crypto 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate76%113W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$15
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$6
other 0% −$3
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -4.1% -13.3% 68% 44% -6.1%
≤30d 148 -8.8% -17.5% 76% 24% -10.3%
≤90d 148 -8.8% -17.5% 76% 24% -10.3%
all 148 -8.8% -17.5% 76% 24% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 24% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 5% -18.9%
15% -32.6% 3% -26.7%
20% -39.2% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses113 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage13d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 423 history records