Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4131…d591 other 537 markets active 3h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,054 (-11%) realized −$1,919 · open −$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate35%163W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$496
14 days−$184
30 days−$1,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$128
sports 23% −$917
politics 17% +$140
finance 14% +$102
tech 7% −$140
world 4% +$15
weather 3% −$91
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -36.8% -42.8% 24% 13% -26.2%
≤30d 362 -16.2% -24.2% 30% 20% -20.3%
≤90d 464 -1.7% -11.0% 35% 23% -14.7%
all 464 -1.7% -11.0% 35% 23% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 23% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 19% -22.8%
15% -27.3% 16% -30.3%
20% -34.4% 13% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$623
Realized−$1,919
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses163 / 301
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions39
Markets (closed)464 / 537
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $246 $130 −$116 (-47%)
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 94¢ $31 $47 +$16 (+50%)
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+1%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? No 41¢ 46¢ $37 $42 +$5 (+13%)
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $57 $37 −$20 (-35%)
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $37 $34 −$2 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $19 $23 +$5 (+24%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+40%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $25 $21 −$5 (-18%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 11¢ 32¢ $7 $20 +$14 (+200%)
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $18 $15 −$2 (-13%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+13%)
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 150 and 160? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 26¢ 46¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+81%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 42¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+493%)
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $83 −$48 -58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Re Jun 20 $3 +$30 +970%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA Jun 19 $292 −$15 -5%
Rainbow Six Siege: Trippy Main Telecom vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific Lea Jun 19 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 Jun 19 $54 +$3 +5%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Pamela Evette win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Jun 19 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Pamela Evette win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Jun 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 18 $133 +$10 +7%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the Mexico vs South Korea Jun 18 $38 +$3 +8%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $6 +$4 +59%
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Jakeya Johnson be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Jun 17 $80 −$77 -96%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 17 $197 −$29 -14%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Theo Gillespie be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? Jun 17 $7 −$3 -48%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 +$21 +148%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 17 $544 −$106 -20%
Rainbow Six Siege: TYLOO vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Future perform "712PM" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Four Angry Men vs TYLOO - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 31? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -45%
MLP St. Louis: St. Louis Shock vs Los Angeles Mad Drops Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will The MongolZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$8 -50%
Will PARIVISION reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$5 -60%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 16 $15 −$3 -18%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? Jun 16 $11 −$3 -30%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 3? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 1? Jun 16 $25 −$13 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -23%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 +5%
Rainbow Six Siege: Kingzone vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - CN League Stag Jun 16 $6 +$13 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 2? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group S BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 21¢ $18 3h
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 39¢ $39 5h
Will Morocco be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group S BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will Morocco be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group S SELL Yes 15¢ $7 7h
Will Morocco be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group S SELL Yes 29¢ $17 7h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 8h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 8h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 8h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 8h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 8h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 8h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 8h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 BUY 5¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 BUY 1¢ $1 10h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 BUY 3¢ $2 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? AND Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY 2¢ $3 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? AND Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY 3¢ $3 10h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 BUY 4¢ $4 10h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les BUY Yes 11¢ $15 11h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA SELL No 40¢ $12 12h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13h
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 20 BUY Yes 22¢ $9 14h
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more BUY Yes 13¢ $2 21h
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more BUY Yes 13¢ $11 21h
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more SELL Yes 16¢ $78 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.08 · official $623.09 (match) · 3500 history records